Gold surge and successive break of higher highs along this month gave the Australian currency a strong impulse. However, today’s sharp pullback due to a weekly profit taking seems to have brought AUD/USD into a pause mode. The precious metal is trading inside an ascending wedge, which is a bearish pattern, and we could probably see a retest of the highs and further pull back down after a double top, although the psychological 1.3000 figure looks extremely tempting and bulls could setup for a quick push before making any significant retracement.
My medium-term views are for a retracement to the SMA20 median band, as it also coincides with a 25% fibonacci fan retracement of the whole last two months upmove on daily charts, and the baseline of the rising channel, along with a 50% retracement over last swing high. However, I will have to keep an eye on Gold actions to anticipate any further moves over next week.
Short-term, a first retracement to 25% of the most recent daily upswing which is also near the 0.9300 round number, and a continuation of the consolidation between this level and the recent highs. Then I would expect a push to test the break of 0.9200 and 38.2% retracement.
Summary of market appreciation
Short-term: range-bound inside upper quarter of last swing high.
Medium-term: Bearish, retracement to retest the previous swing break.