All Blog Posts (1,487)

EUR/USD: consolidating under resistance

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating after re-touching the 1.3400 highs. There is a lot of overhead resistance and it will probably fall temporarily with a target at the range lows at 1.3250. Eventually the bull-trend will probably re-assert with a decisive break above 1.3410 leading to a continuation up to 1.3490. There is substantial resistance from the 50-month and 200-week MA's around 1.3520, which could stall further…

EUR/USD: wave 5

The EUR/USD pair has corrected back to the 38.2% Fibonacci line and then bounced. It is possible the bounce could be an Elliot wave 5 which could re-touch the 1.3400 highs. A decisive break above 1.3325 would provide added confirmation and see a run up to the monthly pivot at 1.3356 and then 1.3400. Alternatively, a move back down to the 38.2% line at 1.3255 is also possible if a range-bound consolidation unfolds.…

EUR/USD: meeting support

EUR/USD has fallen heavily to support and resistance in the1.3260s. It will probably fall further, with the nearby 1.3255 level as the next target down where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and the weekly pivot are clustered. This could be the Elliot wave 4 of the up-move and it will probably end soon with wave 5 retouching the 1.3400 highs, although the monthly pivot at 1.3356 provides an initial target higher.…

EUR/USD: consolidating in up-trend

Eurodollar has rallied up to tough resistance from an old trend-line and the 100 week and 100 month MA's situated at 1.3390 and 1.3415 respectively. It has since pulled back and started consolidating in a range. Overall the bullish trend is intact so a push above the highs and rally to 1.3500 is probable. Alternatively, a move below 1.3330 could see a sell-off down to 1.3270.…

Trillion Dollar Pay Day Loan

payday_loans

Referring to the constant rumors of a Portuguese bailout last year in Europe, Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, said “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” 

For weeks the Eurozone ministers lied to the public about the behind-the-scenes bailout that they were working on.  But here in the US the politicians aren’t lying about the next “crisis” and what to do about it, which is the…

Secret Trading Tip #27

Coming Back from a Loss

A friend of mine in the pit had been having a rough time lately when he asked me a typical question among us traders - How do I come back from a loss? Since he had been having a "rough patch" and not just one bad trade, I gave him the following advice that is to be used over a period of time.

First I asked him, "What does your trading journal look like - or maybe you don’t have one?"

He didn’t think it…

Secret Trading Tip #27

Coming Back from a Loss

A friend of mine in the pit had been having a rough time lately when he asked me a typical question among us traders - How do I come back from a loss? Since he had been having a "rough patch" and not just one bad trade, I gave him the following advice that is to be used over a period of time.

First I asked him, "What does your trading journal look like - or maybe you don’t have one?"

He didn’t think it…

EUR/USD: consolidation in uptrend

The EUR/USD rallied strongly yesterday. Today we have had some sideways activity. A decisive break above the range highs at 1.3282 would probably see another bullish leg first to the 1.3307 highs and then even higher to 1.3356, as a much higher eventual upside target is expected in the 1.39s. If the range lows at 1.3248 are broken a move lower could reach to perhaps the trend-line at 1.3170.…

EUR/USD: recovery possible

A recovery out the current consolidation is probable, with a move above the 1.3080 highs confirming and leading to a move back up to the cluster of pivots located at 1.3115, or even the support and resistance line at 1.3160. Alternatively a break below the 1.3040 lows could see a move down to the trend-line at 1.3010 or possibly the 50-day MA at 1.2975.…

EUR/USD: boxed in

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating in a narrow range today although the mid-term trend remains up. A break above the 1.3093 highs could lead to rally to a tight group of pivots at 1.3120, with a break above those levels necessary for a reassertion of the bull trend. A move below the 1.3055 lows could see a move down to the 1.3000 lows, whilst a major trend-line provides support at around 1.2970.…

EUR/USD: sideways day

The short-term trend is still up after the recent break of the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders and more upside is probable eventually. Today's action, however, is sideways and could continue oscillating. A move above 1.3140 would signal a continuation up to 1.3245, whilst a move below 1.3100 could see a break back down to 1.3050.…

Trillion Dollar Pay Day Loan

payday_loans

Referring to the constant rumors of a Portuguese bailout last year in Europe, Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, said “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.” 

For weeks the Eurozone ministers lied to the public about the behind-the-scenes bailout that they were working on.  But here in the US the politicians aren’t lying about the next “crisis” and what to do about it, which is the debt…

EUR/USD: moving lower

Eurodollar has renewed its down-trend after touching resistance from an old trend-line. It will probably fall further, reaching perhaps down to recent 1.3000 lows and probably even to where the 50-day MA and a major trend-line are situated at 1.2960. Alternatively, a break above the 1.3060s would be necessary for an up-trend to develop, later targeting resistance at 1.3100.…

Secret Trading Tip #18

Using the Doji

On a candlestick chart, there is a pattern that technicians refer to as a doji. A doji has top and bottom shadows like a regular candlestick, but has practically no real body. This happens when the opening and closing price are the same, or so close that they just leave a sliver of a real body. A doji looks like a plus sign or cross.

Finding a Doji can tell a technical analyst key things about a market trend

Doji…

EUR/USD: downtrend continuing

The exchange rate has broken out the price pattern at the highs and reached its downside target at 1.3015. There are, however, no signs yet of the down-trend slowing and so it could continue to the next level of support at 1.2960, where the 50-day MA is situated. Alternatively, a sideways consolidation may unfold, followed by a bounce perhaps, with a decisive break above 1.3050 then targeting 1.3115.…

EUR/USD: possible breakdown

There has been a break down out of the price pattern at the highs and whilst the pair has recovered, it is probable a trend reversal down may be happening. The monthly pivot at 1.3115 underpins support and would have to be decisively breached to give a stronger bearish signal, with a target first at 1.3080, and then 1.3015. Alternatively it would require a break back above 1.3195 to re-establish a bull trend with the range highs at 1.3300…

EUR/USD: At range highs

The EUR/USD has risen strongly to the range highs and the weekly pivot. There is the possibility, either of a break higher, with a decisive break above 1.3300 leading to to a move up to the monthly pivot at 1.3355 and then 1.3400. Alternatively, it could continue consolidating and move back down into the range, targeting 1.3220 support initially and then range lows perhaps at 1.3180.…

Slam

smashed-car

At the end of my last newsletter I said, “In the end, the markets recouped all of their losses thereby giving the microcephalic clown-posse in D.C. another reason to argue like children rather than working on their sickening spending problem.”

At the close of Friday’s market a friend of mine asked “Why would the market fall so hard and so quickly?”  This question reminded me of the Thursday rally into the close and the aforementioned quote,…