January 2012 Blog Posts (15)

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The exchange rate has resumed its rally, however, it seems to be topping now and there is a possibility that it could fall from here, setting up a head and shoulders pattern as it completes the right shoulder. If so, then I would expect to see some downside to the lower channel line and the monthly and weekly pivots supporting 1.3115, then from a possible break of the neckline and down to the 1.29s. A continuation higher is less likely but…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Level 1.3140/50 held back the "bulls", like expected, but not for a long time. The price went further up, tested 1.3220/30 level, which turned out to be a strong resistance, and pulled back down to level 1.3140/30, where trading is being currently carried out. Indicators are turning more down, suggesting further decline, most likely to 1.3100 or even lower, to 1.3080/70 level. However, present pullback should be considered a correction…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD has broken out of its ascending channel and has formed a bearish head and shoulders pattern. If it falls below the key 1.2950 then it will open the way to a drop to at least 1.2850 where a strong level of support exists which includes the weekly pivot and the target from channel breakdown.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The completion of various targets and double top forming indicate potential weakness and a possible break to the downside on the horizon. If the exchange rate falls below the swing lows at 1.2988 it will probably run down to 1.2960 at least, if not possibly further, but there it will probably stop because of support from the trend-line of the whole corrective move. Upside is currently limited by the weekly pivot and targets having been met…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

There is a general upside bias because of the strong support at 1.2850 and the unfinished elliot wave pattern higher. A break of the high at 1.2950 would lead to a rally and re-touch of the recent highs at 1.2985 -and then perhaps even further upside to the 200 - 4-hourly MA at around 1.3000 – which is also a key psychological level. If the pair falls however, then it could drift down to support at 1.2850 instead, with a possible resumption…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

I remain stubbornly bearish on EUR/USD despite the counter-trend rally continuing and making new highs above 1.2900. There is strong resistance on the monthly chart and the recent range highs, and marked divergence on MACD so a resumption of the down-trend is probable, with support at 1.2780 as the next target.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD has rallied up to resistance from the upper channel line of the bearish trend at 1.2785. It has also hit the sideways consolidation highs and the final move higher resembles an elliot 5th wave indicating the possibility of some downside to follow. Although the market hasn't reversed yet there are quite a few negative signals and a move down is expected. The base line of the consolidation and the swing lows at 1.2690 and below at…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The price declined below 1.2780/70 level, triggering a reversal of the "bearish" sentiment on the last session. Trading slipped to its local minimums and then even lower, reaching 1.2630/20 levels. At the moment we observe a pullback up, the price resides at 1.2670/80 level. Indicators are unclear, suggesting uncertainty in the market, which is very likely to result in another correction to recent growth, followed by a possible pullback up,…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The price breached 1.2810 resistance. Level 1.2850/60 is currently holding back the price from further growth, trading is carried out at 1.2840/50. Indicators are mostly "bullish", which gives reasons to anticipate another ascension. It's worth noting, however, that the price now resides around significant resistance levels, which are strong enough to halt further upward movement. If trading falls below 1.2780/70 line, market sentiment will…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The “bearish” attempt to continue a down trend ended up at the old minimum. Reaching 1.2660/65 level, the price pulled back up and now resides at 1.2720/30 levels. Indicators are turning up, suggesting “bullish” development; MACD divergence seems to have commenced, which gives reasons to be cautious about the “bearish” strength and consider a possibility of reversal up, that may be triggered by today’s political news and ECB interest rate…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The counter-trend rally in EUR/USD is extending, although gains seem to be capped at 1.2800 where resistance from the lower line of the wedge pattern continues to stifle upside. There seems to be some underlying strength in the correction and it is too early to indicate further downside yet, although a bear move to the lows at 1.2665 is entirely possible.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The price approached 1.2800 resistance level and pulled back down. Trading is now carried out at 1.2745/50 level. Indicators have turned from "bearish" to neutral, suggesting further consolidation within 1.2810 – 1.2670/40 range, like expected. Earlier forecasts are still relevant - if 1.2810 level is breached, the next stop will take place at 1.2850/60 resistance. Medium-term outlook looks "bearish", the next target is likely to be found…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has been making a correction of the bear trend, in what might be classed an elliot wave 4th wave. There are signs of short-term resistance from the daily R1 pivot at current highs which could indicate the possibility of wave 5 beginning and falling to re-touch the lows at 1.2665 as a minimum. Overall the outlook is for some sideways consolidation, however, over the next few days as the current cycle completes.…

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EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD is consolidating at the lows which might indicate a correction in prices. Wave analysis points to the possible completion of a cycle at the current lows and a rebound possible. Strong momentum convergences and an inverted H&S on RSI also indicate there may be a bounce, and 1.3000 provides the first target. The overall trend is still down, however, and it could resume at any time and if there is a break down it could target…