March 2013 Blog Posts (24)

Indecision

Who’s Next?

venus

When the US housing market was starting to fall apart Ben Bernanke made a now rather famous statement because he was so wrong.  Regarding the situation he said on March 28, 2007 “At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.”

On which planet of the solar system it was contained, he did…

EUR/USD: Continuation Down

Eurodollar is falling again and has broken down below the 1.2780 level confirming a renewal of the down-trend. This means it is likely to fall to a new downside target at 1.2650 measured from the pennant formed earlier, although 1.2675 provides an nearer target. Alternatively, if there is a rebound then one would expect upside caped by the 200-day MA at 1.2865, with a…

EUR/USD: Bearish Potential

Eurodollar has fallen back down making new lows. Importantly it has reached the 200-day MA and is consolidating at that level. We still don't have a decisive break below and would require a move under the monthly pivot at 1.2815 to support the bearish case. Currently it looks like a flag pattern could be forming on the 4hr chart with a downside target at 1.2650. More…

Indecision

If I had to describe today’s market in one word it would be: indecision. Although the market closed lower, it was mostly indecisive.  There were many rumors concerning the Cypress situation – all indecisive in the end. 

 While the news/decision for Cyprus as a whole may be indecisive as of yet, the reality for its citizens is final: there is little-to-no-money in the ATMs.  The news wires carried the following during the day…

*Cyprus Popular Bank…

Dear Trader,

As you may be already aware Forex trading is all about money management.  If you trade without a goal in mind, then you're simply guessing the market.  While guessing can sometimes be productive, it will not last longer.  

Per our records so far this month we're positive on most of our trading portfolios. Per our money management guidelines, there will be a decrease on the number of alerts sent going forward for the rest of the week.  Quite frankly, it's…

Secret Trading Tip #15

Trailing Stops

The topic of trailing stops comes up on occasion in my Virtual Trading Room. They can often cause some confusion, so let’s take a bit of time to clarify what constitutes a trailing stop and how you can use it in futures trading..

Trailing stops are actually stop loss orders that you move according to certain parameters in your trading plan.

Why Move Stop Loss Orders?

Stop loss orders are stop orders…

EUR/USD: Consolidating, Downside Bias



This pair has moved sideways this morning so far giving no indication of future direction. Currently there is resistance above price at 1.2920 from the 50 and 100-hour MA's and strong support at 1.2815 from weekly and monthly pivots. The pair has drifted out of the down-sloping channel but there is no upside impetus. A break above 1.2995 would signal a move up to 1.3060,…

EUR/USD: Sideways Market



The euro rebounded off its lows during Wednesday's session and found its way above the upper line of the down-sloping channel. This morning, however, it has started to fall once again and has now reached the upper channel line again where it is consolidating temporarily on the support offered. Given the bearish start to the day it is possible there could be a continuation lower, with a break of 1.2865…

Secret Trading Tip #1

Trade with a Plan – Using a Stop Loss

In my opinion, every trade you consider should be laid out ahead of time with a roadmap. A complete map should have an “off ramp” or a place where it makes sense to enter the market. It should also have exits for your destination (profits) as well as off ramps for emergency exits. This part of your plan will likely include stop orders.

Stop orders placed to potentially close an open position are…

GBP/USD: bounce continues

The GBP/USD has bounced strongly from Wednesday's lows. It has continued rallying this morning and it may go even higher eventually, reaching resistance from the monthly pivot and the trend-line at 1.5310. Apart from the strength of the rebound there are no indication's yet of a reversal of the short-term down-trend: there are no price patterns and only a minor trend-line has been broken, therefore, it is still quite probable the down-trend…

EUR/USD: 1.29 still supporting

Eurodollar sold off yesterday reaffirming the short-term down-trend as it continues making lower lows and lower highs. It also retracted back into its descending channel after temporarily breaking out. Nevertheless it failed to break the key support level from the September and October '12 highs. The target from the H&S top is met so there is potential for a bounce. Volume on yesterday's spike-down was weak and a rise back up to the…

EUR/USD: channel breakout

We have now had a break out of the channel, although there has been limited follow-through. The bounce from Friday's lows continues to rise slowly and there is a possibility now – since the channel breakout - of a continuation eventually up to the target at 1.3180. The price pattern stretching back over a week looks potentially like a reversal enhancing bullish outlook. A bundle of resistance at 1.3115 impedes but a decisive break above…

EUR/USD: reversal a possibility

Eurodollar is in a sideways consolidation with support in the 1.29s. The target for the head and shoulders top has pretty much been met so it is possible a reversal could develop, with a definitive break above 1.3055 signalling a breakout from the channel and possible resumption of mid-term up-trend and initial target at 1.3133. The pair remains in its down-sloping channel, however, so more weakness is also very possible, with a break…

Waiting Game

waiting

There was no action Thursday.  Traders are waiting on Friday’s monthly employment situation report. 

 The way Chairman Ben has the market cornered, either a better than expected or worse than expected outcome can be spun like cotton candy into a bullish reaction.  That is the normal course of business on Fraud Street; however, because the market has gone up almost every day this year without a pullback, traders are looking for a…

Secret Trading Tip #3

A Little Lesson in Lingo

The world of trading has many parts that seem a little foreign to new traders. There are plenty of catch phrases, symbols, and other banter that can be intimidating or even confusing at first. One of the biggest sources of confusion includes the shorthand that you see for many markets. Understanding what you are reading is important, and learning the basic lingo can come in handy.

Everything has a specified…

EUR/USD: 'pulling-back'

EUR/USD pair is still recovering but less aggressively than it did yesterday. This morning's activity has been mixed and it is possible it will continue sideways. If we get a break above the key 1.3100 level then there is a chance of a rally up to the top of the channel at around 1.3140-50. The rebound is probably just a pull-back and the down-trend should resume eventually and probably reach the target from the head and shoulders top…