October 2012 Blog Posts (17)

Land of Oz

ruby-slippers-wand

Friday the preliminary look at Q3 GDP came out and "beat" expectations of a 1.8% print, with a 2.0% reading. That seemingly sounds positive, but since its “election season,” we need to delve deeper into the data to get the real story.

When you pull back the curtain, you of course see Mr. Wizzard manipulating the numbers. Because of the 2.02% annualized increase in GDP, over one third, or 0.71 %( compared to a deduction of -0.14% in Q2), was…

Secret Trading Tip #3

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A Little Lesson in Lingo

The world of trading has many parts that seem a little foreign to new traders. There are plenty of catch phrases, symbols, and other banter that can be intimidating or even confusing at first. One of the biggest sources of confusion includes the shorthand that you see for many markets. Understanding what you are reading is important, and learning the basic lingo can come…

If you're getting unable to download or error launching app messages when attempting to launch AI platform, this is due to a DNS allocation issue.

If you're running Windows 7, simply acknowledge any error messages and the software should proceed to login without a problem.

Windows XP: Proceed to access AI from directory folder.  Click start menu, my computer, select "C" drive, program files, find Forex AI folder, then launch AI by clicking on "Forex AI" file or…

Earnings Misses



Whether stocks have missed analyst expectations, missed on their respective top line growth estimates, or warned for future revenue misses, when they release their statements they are punished.



For several days it seemed like the overall market would focus on Bernanke’s QEternity buying spree and ignore high-profile disappointments, until Friday.  Like all bad news on Fraud Street; it is ignored, until it can’t be ignored any…

Secret Trading Tip #14

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Getting Technical

If you know your way around a price chart (Tip#5) then you are ready to learn a little more about technical analysis. This kind of analysis is defined as an attempt to try to forecast price movements based on patterns observed in price changes on charts, or other changes that are not rooted in fundamental observations. …

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

A fulcrum reversal pattern at the highs on the daily chart as well as a 2-bar reversal warns of weakness. Shorter term, however, there may be a bounce to trend-line resistance at around 1.3085, but after that the descent will probably resume, finding support at 1.3025, whilst a move below 1.2975 would give bearish confirmation and see a possible run down to 1.2850. A break above 1.3110 would help confirm a bullish continuation, targeting…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Eurodollar has started to consolidate in a range at the highs. It will still probably rise higher with a decisive break above the top of the range at 1.3125 leading to a probable run up to the old highs and the monthly pivot resisting at 1.3175. However, there is also the possibility the pair may correct back given signs of exhaustion on the 4-hr chart, and a move below the range at 1.3084 could see a breakdown to resistance-turned-support…

Add 10 Zeros

It was yet another week of off-kilter markets and unexplainable reactions to economic data and macro-events. It’s hard to tell if we are in a bad is good or good is good or everything is bad cycle?  

The one thing we can be sure of is that while you have just read this sentence, the national debt has increased by some ridiculous sum. For all the numbers that I consider on a daily basis, this is the one that is tough for me to wrap my brain around. How can we…

Understanding Candlestick Patterns - Harami

I've already covered some of the better known patterns like doji (Tip #18) and engulfing (Tip#19) – now it's time to add harami to your candlestick chart pattern arsenal. Let's take a look at what this technical signal looks like,…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Eurodollar bounced yesterday and has rallied further today. It has now reached an old resistance line from where it will probably fall back down, reaching perhaps the 1.2920 lows. A breach of them could open the way to a sell-off back down to the monthly pivot at 1.2840. Alternatively a decisive break higher could see a move up to 1.3000 although those key highs would have to be breached for a renewal of the bullish outlook.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Eurodollar has formed a double bottom at yesterday's lows and has managed to remain above the upper line of the wedge. Momentum is converging bullishly and we will probably see a rally from here. A rise above the neckline at 1.2913 would target 1.3000 – although a nearer target would be the tough level of resistance at 1.2970. A re-break of the 1.2824 lows would lead to a renewal of the down-trend perhaps to support at 1.2775.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has reached support from the channel-line of the July rally and the monthly pivot. It will probably make a bounce from here. Bullish confirmation could come from a move above 1.2885. It will probably reach the cluster of moving averages at 1.2940 first and then eventually round-number resistance at 1.3000. A break below Tuesday's lows at 1.2833 might initiate a continuation down, although another major trend-line at 1.2785…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Eurodollar has fallen sharply this morning and has re-touched support from the upper line of the wedge formation. The move down has been very strong and rapid and there is a chance that it will break through the support and fall more deeply, reaching 1.2850. A bounce, however, would probably see a move up to 1.2950, before then likely resuming its descent.…

Friday’s employment data was interesting; wasn’t it?  I think it’s safe to say that it shocked everyone but the politicians.  Like Santa Claus delivering presents to children, the Bureau of Lies & Statistics (BLS) delivered a shocking present for politicians before the election.



The Bureau of Lies &…

Trade with a Plan – Using a Stop Loss



In my opinion, every trade you consider should be laid out ahead of time with a roadmap. A complete map should have an “off ramp” or a place where it makes sense to enter the market. It should also have exits for your destination…

Recession Data

This morning’s data was bad – worse than recent poor macro data; however, the market got yet another “stick save.” Thursday morning’s economic news was, in a word: RECESSIONARY.

Durable Goods data was stinky…New orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $30.1 billion or 13.2 percent to $198.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following three consecutive monthly increases, was the largest decrease since January…