There's lots of news centering on the U.S. housing situation today -
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly application survey, mortgage application volume rose 2.8 percent during the week ending Aug. 1st. The MBA's application index rose to 432.6 from 420.8 a week earlier, which was the lowest reading of the year.
According to Richard Syron, the chairman and CEO of Freddie Mac (FRE), U.S. house prices will fall by as much as 20 percent nationally and the… Continue
Added by Jack Lott on August 6, 2008 at 12:04pm —
Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluation by attempting to measure intrinsic value. Fundamental analysts study everything from the overall economy; current and future economic conditions to the financial conditions and future expectations along with what may be factored into the market.
Technical analysis is the evaluation of price or future price movements by studying statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to… Continue
Added by Adam Horak on August 6, 2008 at 8:07am —
As oil prices pull back and look more and more like the exit of a commodity bubble I want to introduce traders to the (Greater Fool Theory) this is the idea a lot of traders use when prices first begin there retracement.
The idea behind the greater fool theory is that it is possible to make money by buying in an overvalued market and later selling them at a profit because there will always be someone that is (a bigger fool) who is willing to pay the higher price.
Added by Adam Horak on August 5, 2008 at 3:20pm —
The Federal Open Market Committee kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 2.0%. The decision was anticipated by traders and economists on Wall Street. In its statement, the Fed gave no sign that it plans to change policy in the foreseeable future. There was one dissent from Dallas Fed Richard Fisher, who wanted to hike rates.
Oil prices continue to fall, sinking as low as $118 a barrel on growing concerns that a U.S. economic slowdown tied to high energy costs are curbing… Continue
Added by Jack Lott on August 5, 2008 at 10:00am —
Aug 3 6:45pm NZD Labor Cost Index q/q 0.8% 0.7%
7:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y 0.4%
9:30pm AUD House Price Index q/q -1.1% 0.4%
Aug 4 3:30am CHF SVME PMI 53.4 54.9
4:30am EUR Sentix Investor Confidence -10.0 -9.3
4:30am GBP Construction PMI 37.6 38.8
5:00am EUR PPI m/m 0.8% 1.2%
6:22am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y 46.7%
All Day CAD Holiday: Civic Holiday
8:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.2%
8:30am USD Personal… Continue
Added by Adam Horak on August 4, 2008 at 12:07pm —
for those of you that tune into the radio shows, this is the trade that was setting up that James and I were discusing on air I was looking for this to the short side as you can see it has played nicely off the Fib Fan and 50day SMA after over extending the Day ATR using a float stratagy to pick up a quick 40 pips on this trade i will continue to adjust my stop on this position in case it breaks lower below the support at 103.00 but want to secure as… Continue
Added by Adam Horak on August 4, 2008 at 11:57am —
Consumer spending dropped by 0.2 percent in June, after removing the effects of higher prices. This is the poorest showing since a similar drop in February. The higher prices reflect a big increase in gasoline prices and helped to drive an inflationary gauge tied to consumer spending up by 0.8 percent in June, the biggest increase since a one percent rise in February 1981. Personal incomes rose just 0.1% after a 1.8% surge in May.
The Commerce Department also reported that inflation… Continue
Added by Jack Lott on August 4, 2008 at 10:12am —
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JULY 2008
The unemployment rate rose to 5.7 percent, and nonfarm payroll employment
continued to trend down in July (-51,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of
the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment continued to fall in
construction, manufacturing, and several service-providing industries, while
health care and mining continued to add jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by
6 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the… Continue
Added by Adam Horak on August 1, 2008 at 12:26pm —
Non-farm payrolls fell for the seventh straight month in July while the unemployment jumped to 5.7%, a four-year high. Payrolls fell by 51,000 in July, led by losses in manufacturing, construction, retail and temporary help. Since December, 463,000 jobs have been lost, the strongest signal that the economy is in a recession.
The Institute for Supply Management reported that U.S. manufacturing activity was flat in July. The ISM manufacturing index slipped from 50.2% in June to 50% in… Continue
Added by Jack Lott on August 1, 2008 at 11:00am —
In the week ending July 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 448,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 404,000. The 4-week moving average was 393,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised average of 382,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending July 19, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.3… Continue
Added by Adam Horak on July 31, 2008 at 9:58am —
The U.S. economy expanded less than expected in the second quarter as the burden from housing and rising unemployment thwarted the impact of federal tax rebate checks. Gross Domestic Product grew at a 1.9 percent annualized rate after expanding 0.9 percent in the first quarter. The report also showed a recession may have begun in the final three months of 2007.
The Labor Department reported that the number of applications for initial jobless benefits soared to 448,000, which is an… Continue
Added by Jack Lott on July 31, 2008 at 9:30am —
The ADP employment index showed that U.S. private-sector employment rose by 9,000 in July. Adding in some 20,000 government workers typically hired in a given month, the index suggests U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by about 30,000 in July which the government will release Friday morning. Economists are expecting a loss of 70,000.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage application volume tumbled 14.1 percent during the week ending July 25th, hitting its lowest level of… Continue
Added by Jack Lott on July 30, 2008 at 10:30am —
The Employment Report/non farm payroll
• Importance (A-F): This release merits an A.
• Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
• Release Time: First Friday of the month at 8:30 ET for the prior month
• Raw Data Available At: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm.
The employment report is actually two separate reports which are the results of two separate surveys. The household survey is a survey of roughly 60,000 households. This survey… Continue
Added by Adam Horak on July 29, 2008 at 1:19pm —
The Business of Trading
Starting Your Business
Now that you are a trader, you should always be on the lookout for ways to increase your returns. In addition to increasing the actual returns you make on trades, you should also look for ways your trading can make or save you money.
In reality, it doesn’t matter where your income or profit comes from as long as your cash increases at the end of each month. This is what I refer to as the business of… Continue
Added by Adam Horak on July 29, 2008 at 12:08pm —
Barack Obama will meet with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. The two are expected to discuss the current credit crisis and Obama's plans to enforce tougher oversight of financial institutions if he is elected president. Obama is also scheduled to speak to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson by phone today.
U.S. chain store sales rose 1.2% in the first three weeks of July compared with the previous month. The index's rise was milder than the targeted 1.4% increase. The index also… Continue
Added by Jack Lott on July 29, 2008 at 10:33am —
Toyota lowered its global vehicle sales plan for this year to 9.5 million vehicles -- which is down from 9.85 million -- as the listless North American market slows the automaker's momentum.
Emirates Airlines have taken delivery of its first of 58 A380 super jumbo jets from AirBus and said it has signed up to buy another 60 aircraft from the European plane manufacturer.
Private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, which gained fame by taking RJ Reynolds private two decades… Continue
Added by Jack Lott on July 28, 2008 at 9:30am —
The Value of Calculated Risk
By James Dicks
If you have become a successful investor, you already know that taking a well-planned and deliberate risk is a key factor in reaching your goals. While it might sound a little intimidating, it is an essential part of investing, entrepreneurship and life itself. Think about it – we all take a big risk just getting up in the morning but if we decided to just lie around all day we would never accomplish anything. It takes some type of… Continue
Added by Jack Lott on July 25, 2008 at 4:00pm —
Stronger demand for primary metals, machinery and electronics pushed orders for U.S.-made durable goods up 0.8% in June. Excluding the 2.6% decrease in transportation goods orders rose 2.0%, the sharpest gain since last December and was the largest increase in total orders since February. The increase was much more than anticipated and was mostly related to increased defense spending.
The consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan hit 61.2 in July, that’s up from an… Continue
Added by Jack Lott on July 25, 2008 at 3:03pm —
The Labor Department reported that first-time claims for initial unemployment benefits rose to the highest level since late March in the latest week. The number of initial claims in the latest reporting period rose 34,000 to 406,000. The consensus forecast was for claims to increase to 380,000.
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes fell by 2.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.86 million units. That's more than double… Continue
Added by Jack Lott on July 25, 2008 at 3:02pm —
Jul 27 6:45pm NZD Trade Balance -0.50B -0.20B
8:00pm AUD Leading Index m/m 0.3%
9:30pm AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence -4
Jul 28 2:00am EUR German Consumer Confidence 3.5 3.9
12:00pm USD FOMC Member Mishkin Speaks
6:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m -42.3%
7:30pm JPY Overall Household Spending y/y 2.8% -3.2%
7:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0%
7:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y -0.2% 0.3%
Jul 29 All Day EUR German… Continue
Added by Adam Horak on July 25, 2008 at 12:33pm —