AUDUSD - Monthly long-term Overview

After breaking psychological level 0.9900 last week, Australian Dollar turned back into the channel for a fair retracement to retest 0.9790 former broken resistance, now holding as support, a little further than what we were expecting on last NFP Friday. Profits were to be made on both sides as it went back to the highs with much strength, and ended on a doji on the last 4 hour candle.

This week started with a gap up but steam wasn’t in the picture and we were left with an apparent double top on 4H charts, presently trading around the upper rising trend line with little conviction, we have a rising wedge on Daily charts and prices could very well go back to retest 0.9750 which is around the middle line of the weekly pitchfork and the last broken area of resistance that has to be now proven to hold as support.

AUDUSD	RES2	RES1	SUP 1	SUP 2	R/R	FORECAST	PRICE ACTION
Monthly	0.9852	0.9520	0.8181	0.5228	1:3	Bullish	Breaking Level 2 Res
Weekly	0.9933	0.9753	0.8947	0.6007	1:3	Bullish	Possible double top – caution
Daily	0.9920	0.9891	0.9563	0.8069	1:3	Bearish	Rising wedge

We have a double top on monthly charts as well, with still a little way to go until touching the upper trend line of the ascending channel, and three next Fibonacci extension levels of 1.0300, 1.0650 and the upper weekly trend line at around 1.0800.

At the moment I don’t think we might go much further than parity, which is a strong psychological level, much expected and thus there is a fair chance that many orders are placed at that level to short the currency and force it to pull back. However, we are now just at the door of a no-man’s land, newly discovered territories after breaking all-time highs, and anything could happen, especially when the continued accumulation of positive swap due to Australia’s high interest rates refrains the bulls from taking their profits too soon. We’re back to deliberation around that critical level and I would expect a sustained consolidation looking for 0.9850 to hold and be the lever to impulse this pair again towards last achievements, as 1.0000 is really near and still very tempting for Bulls to persist.