USDJPY - Monthly long-term Overview

USDJPY has kept running down to the lower trend line after breaking level 138.2 of extension on the monthly charts.The pin bar showing on daily time frame three days ago is presently failed as price broke below the lows and is approaching the lower base of the descending channel, and is it very probable that it will try to reach 161.8 Fibonacci extension on weekly.

Should that level be broken we could expect a greater fall to the base of the pitchfork weekly channel , however a rebound or pullback up is possible when it reaches 80.50 which is the daily channel support of the trend. A correction to retest the daily break at around 83.00 can be on sight, with a second target at 84.00 for a retest of the weekly broken support. A continued fall would lead us towards weekly baseline around 72.00 for a much longer term overview.

(Daily chart assessment taken one hour before US markets open on Monday October 11, 2010)

USDJPY	RES2	RES1	SUP 1	SUP 2	R/R	FORECAST	PRICE ACTION
Monthly	125.88	91.61	82.88	80.18	1:3	Bearish	Break of 138.2 fib extension
Weekly	102.43	88.01	82.88	81.72	1:3	Bearish	Descending channel
Daily	92.90	84.64	82.14	82.01	1:3	Bearish	Descending channel