CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Update - Feb. 04/08 close

USDCAD

Last week was bearish for the Loonie, following a daily pin bar at the beginning of the period. The pair consolidated for the last three days of the previous week and has started a move back up reaching above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and presently trading between 0.9930/50 level, respectively the middle line of the daily Bollinger bands and SMA34 which was breached and now seems to be holding as a support. I would favor a further ascension for a retest of last week highs above parity (1.0058) and continuation towards the middle line of the weekly Bollinger Bands and daily SMA100 at about round number 1.0100. Should the resistance hold and price get back again to the downside, we would have to reach previous lows at 0.9830, then the daily 127% extension of the swing at around 0.9780 and 127% weekly extension at 0.9725 after a break of the descending channel.

AUDUSD

The Aussie seems poised to reach 1,0450/1.0530 on the weekly charts, which correspond to the 127% and 138.2% Fibonacci extensions from the previous swing high. Last week ended on a doji candle though, after almost reaching psychological level 1.0200 on Friday. I would expect a fair correction before the continuation to the upside, to the daily SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands which are presently in confluence and at parity level. However, the pair has been strongly rejected from level 1.0100 and also every bearish attempt of this week has been followed by a new bullish surge, so it is possible that the correction might not reach 1.0020/1.0000 as expected and follow on to the above mentioned bullish targets.

XAUUSD (GOLD)

Weekly charts for Gold show a confirmed pin bar bouncing up from SMA34, which should be bullish, while on daily we have price closing below the SMA34, SMA100 and middle line of the Bollinger Bands, with a bearish doji. Outlook is mixed and 1370.00 would have to be broken for a regain of the bullish direction. As of today, the price has just gotten above the daily SMA34 and thus this scenario is quite possible, targeting resistance at 1380.00 as first step and further on towards previous highs at 1424.00 if this strong level is broken. We maintain our views to the downside towards level 1260.00/1240.00 if it holds.