Euro and Pound Weekly Update - Feb. 11/15 close

EURUSD

This week seems to be poised for a continuation to the downside for the Euro-Dollar, with a confirmed pin bar on the weekly charts and Friday’s close below the daily SMA100. We have been seeing a consolidation between 1.3550 and 1.3420 since Monday and I would favor a further push down to the 61.8% daily Fibonacci retracement on previous swing high, which corresponds to the weekly SMA34 at around 1.3260. A sentiment change to the upside would bring us to a retest of the pin bar highs and further to the weekly SMA200 around 1.3960, with probable extension to 1.4130/1.4240 looking for November 2010 highs.

GBPUSD

The Pound-Dollar slightly breached again the upper line of the symmetrical weekly triangle but closed inside, ending at the middle line of the daily Bollinger bands on Friday. We are as of today at the same level, after a bullish attempt on Monday which gave back all the gains yesterday. The pair looks bearish and if the actual support level is broken, we would be looking for a retracement to the 1.5830/10 area where  we have a confluence of the daily SMA100 and SMA34 and a little further at around 1.5700 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), the previous upper line of the descending channel. A break of 1.6300 would lead to an extension 1.6860/1.7090 on a medium term view, towards the weekly SMA200 and Fibonacci extensions 127% and 138.2%.

EURGBP

Still inside a consolidation area, and after a bearish continuation of its move breaking last week’s lows and reaching near 0.8350 yesterday, the Euro Pound looks slightly bullish today although this could just be a correction. I would expect the pair to fall further towards 0.8320/0.8280 to revisit January lows. However should the present daily descending channel and resistance be broken to the upside (0.8460/0.8500 levels) we might reach towards the upper trend line of the symmetrical weekly triangle and previous daily highs near 0.8675/0.8700 along with weekly SMA100 level.