CAD, Aussie and Gold Weekly Overview - September 09 close

USDCAD

The Loonie rose as expected last week, reaching barely 23 pips below parity, which it finally achieved earlier today. At the present moment the price is a little above Friday’s high but was rejected from the new highs it made at 1.0025. It is too soon to predict here a double top, but we could consider it might have a retrace to 0.9910/0.9880 (38.2% and 50% correction on this month’s daily swing high, and also the confluence of the SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands). There should be good support at 0.9910 (June highs). An additional 100+ pip move to the upside could occur if today’s highs are broken, to reach the 138.2% extension, coinciding with the present level of the weekly SMA100 (area between 1.0125 and 1.0175). For a longer term view, I maintain last week’s projection of the previous flag pole to the weekly 138.2% extension (1.0238/40).

AUDUSD

Last week was definitely marking a continuation of the short-term bearish trend of the Aussie, and price closed below the weekly SMA34. As we had forecasted, the price ranged between 1.0600 and near 1.0400 before the rate announcement, which didn’t bring a particular outburst given that the “no-change” I rates was already priced in.

Our first target was reached on Friday (1.0450) near the end of the session, and our second target earlier today; price has since continued to fall steadily to the 161.8% daily extension on the previous swing low, which was surpassed. The Aussie is however encountering as of now some good support above 1.0300 from where it seems to be willing to adopt, again, a bullish character despite the bearish trend. Tonight we will have NAB Business Confidence numbers which will hopefully help define this trend a little more, by now I am bullish up to a retest of the recently broken supports at 1.0470/80 and 1.0500 (which are also roughly the 50% retracement on 4-hour charts and today’s daily pivot levels respectively). Medium-term, this pair should revisit parity which lies now on the respected weekly trend line, however support area 1.0200 to 1.0270 seems particularly strong and might need some more time (or heavy negative fundamentals) to be breached.

XAUUSD (GOLD)

The previous highs were pierced last week, however we cannot say it was a clear break; the level was rejected and Gold retraced about 61.8% of the upwards move, forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily charts and closing near the center point. Support at round number 1800.00 held well, and the next bullish target for this pair would be an extension to 1960.00/70.00 if it achieves a new high over the next few days. Another attempt to break 1800.00 is also possible, targeting 1760.00/40.00 (downside extensions 127% and 138.2% on last week’s range) if it succeeds. The ultimate goal on a medium to long term is psychological level 2000.00.