Yen Pairs Weekly Overview - September 09 close

USDJPY

The Dollar-Yen modestly rose as we had expected, not yet reaching our targets though, but slightly breaking above the previous highs and ending on Friday above the confluence of the daily SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands. There is still some more road to travel on the weekly charts to reach the middle bands, and the pair still looks heavy and in an accumulation period. Friday price action ended on a doji and the 38.2% correction was achieved; despite the price holding barely above the highs, we have seen this week a bearish start bringing the pair below the daily SMA34 and middle band, falling towards a possible retest of the lows, and at least most probably some ranging action for the next few days. Should the USD/JPY break 77.80, and rise above the 50% retracement at 78.15, the next levels to target would be 78.40/60 area (around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) 79.30 (above daily SMA100 and around the 80%) and 80.20 (last month’s highs).

EURJPY

Another bearish week for the Euro-Yen, heading towards our target at psychological level 100.00. The lows at 108.00 were broken as expected and our primary target of 105.00 was almost reached on Friday, having by now been surpassed. Price extended down to the 127% level on previous weekly swing low, and to the 138.2% level on daily. We are presently trading further down and making a slight recovery after falling below the 161.8% daily bearish extension (weekly 138.2%), and price is presently holding above 104.70. I would expect further downside, however this could happen after a retest of the broken support area. Given the steady trending behaviour of this pair though, I think it can extend below 104.00 before retesting, and I will be targeting the 161.8% weekly extension at around psychological number 102.00, if today’s lows are broken.

GBPJPY

The Pound-Yen tested and broke last month’s lows as forecasted, closing below that level. As for the EUR/JPY, this week has started with the continuation of the bearish move, where this pair reached the weekly 127% extension and has broken March lows (123.00). I maintain the same expectations as last week’s for the medium term prices, and on a shorter term view, will be targeting 120.90 and 120.40 (daily 161.8% and weekly 138.2% extensions respectively).