Swiss Franc Weekly Overview - September 09 close

EURCHF

The Euro-CHF reversed to the upside last week, reaching near the SMA34 and closing at the 61.8% weekly Fibonacci retracement level. We have a strong engulfing candle and a fairly high possibility for this pair to start a new trend, however we are still as of today below the weekly SMA34 from which we could bounce back down for a retest of August lows. On the daily charts, the price has broken above SMA100 and is presently in a tight consolidation with a long series of very small candles on the hourly and 4-hour charts, still trading below the daily pivot though. A fall to the S2 level and previous August highs around 1.1970 can be expected as a first target, with next step being about the round number 1.1900 where there is some good support (the area is comprised between 1.1810 and 1.1890, 1.1900 being just below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (1.1911) on the strong bullish move from last Tuesday). I would expect then a continuation upwards, and if the actual weekly SMA34 level (1.2340) and round number 1.2400 is broken, we could be heading to an extension between 1.2480 and 1.2700 (127% and 138.2% respectively on daily charts).

GBPCHF

The Pound-CHF indeed broke the previous week’s highs as the confirmed weekly pin bar was suggesting, and reached a 61.8% correction up to the SMA34 level. Friday closed well above the daily SMA100 almost reaching the SMA200 and performing a 127% extension on the previous swing high. Same as for the EUR/CHF, we still have to confirm a trend reversal and a bounce from the SMA200 and subsequent correction to the daily SMA100 or even further to the middle line of the Bollinger bands (1.3200) can occur before we can see a follow-up of the strong moves made last week. I would vouch for a retest of the broken resistance at 1.3590/60, then another attempt to break the SMA200 level with short-term target at 1.4351 and medium-term goal at around 1.4840 (138.2% and 161.8% daily extensions).

USDCHF

As we were expecting last week, the Swissie did a clear break of the descending channel and reached above the weekly 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and SMA34. On the daily charts, we can see that the pair behaved well in excess of our targets, closing on Friday at 1.8830 after making a new high at 1.8863. Under a similar view as for its siblings, EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF, I would expect a correction to at least the daily SMA200 at around 1.8700, then the first next support area (between 0.8620/0.8560, nearly a 38.2% retracement) as next target, then maybe a continuation to the 50% retracement on last week’s bullish move, near 0.8340. Should the daily highs and SMA200 be broken afterwards to the upside, we would be targeting the weekly previous highs and SMA100 at 0.9770/80.