Swiss Franc Weekly Update - April 15 close

EURCHF

Price bounced from the strong resistance level at 1.3200/50 two weeks ago, and as expected in our previous analysis we went last week back down below 1.2900 even further than our targeted area of 1.2880 (1.2840/45). Today’s market extreme volatility at news time brought the pair much lower and we are presently trading at the 1.2720/50 support zone level which is also the 127% Fibonacci extension on previous daily swing low, and a little below the weekly 61.8% correction on the last swing high. Price seems to be coming back inside the weekly descending channel and we could see it falling further to retest March lows at around 1.2410/00. Another possibility is that of a recession above the upper line of the channel and continuation on the bullish side, where we would be aiming for a retest of the highs at 1.3240/50 and an extension to 1.3360/1.3400 (daily 138.2% extension of the swing) and  1.3480/1.3500 (above weekly 127% extension) on a medium-term approach, if the resistance is finally broken.

GBPCHF

The Pound-Swiss Franc experienced a moderate reaction after this early morning (USA markets) great volatility, compared to EURCHF and USDCHF huge moves. Price is evolving inside a 100+ pip consolidation since last week, after breaking the weekly 61.8% Fibonacci level and previous support/consolidation zone at 1.4630/10. The natural expectation in front of such a move and pattern (break and consolidation below the break) is a continuation to the downside towards round number 1.4400 and lower daily Bollinger band as first target, then to March lows on a medium term view at around next round number 1.4300 and daily 138.2% extension on the swing low.

USDCHF

The last two weeks have been strongly bearish for the Swissie, which made new lows on Thursday and closed on Friday with a daily doji candle, indicating a possible move back to the bullish side, which we are still expecting as per our long-term analysis of the weekly Wolfe Wave. Price went down retesting the lows and piercing 0.8900 (as we had forecasted would happen should the support area weaken), and Friday closed above the round number, at 0.8922.  Today’s volatility gave us a 85-pip hourly candle for this pair, which had already started to climb reaching near 0.8990; the total range achieved at news time was of 95 pips both sides (0.8903-0.8998) in barely three hours. My views for this pair are still bullish and although news spikes shouldn’t be taken into account we could say we have a triple bottom at the 0.8900 – round number level (double bottom if taken over this and last week) with next targets to the upside at 0.9050 (retest of the broken descending channel), and 0.9110/25 which is strong resistance level and was supported twice (in March, and earlier this month), coinciding with the 4-hour SMA100 level and daily confluence of the SMA34 and middle line of the Bollinger bands.