Yen Pairs Weekly Update - April 15/18 close

USDJPY

The Dollar-Yen retested round number 85.00 as expected but barely reached 10 pips above, falling then to the daily SMA200 at 83.50 where price was contained for most of the week, and breaking lower on Friday, reaching the daily middle line of the Bollinger bands at around 83.00, closing slightly above the round number. The pair moved further to the downside yesterday, crossing through the confluence of all three moving averages and now sitting above the lower daily Bollinger band at 82.44. This level is inside what I’d call a “balance zone” this pair has shown preference for since the beginning of the year and the core range is 81.80/83.00. Also, price has performed a 38.2% Fibonacci correction and I would expect a bounce back to the upside after maybe a quick drop to 81.50/81.00. However, and as we are presently trading below the SMA confluence, the drop could also attempt to revisit the previous lows, maybe not as far as 76.75 but to 78.80/50 which represents a 76.4%/80% retracement on the upmove.

EURJPY

The Euro-Yen failed to rise again and ended last week on a bearish engulfing candle, and at a daily 38.2% Fibonacci retracement over the previous swing high. Yesterday price broke below last Thursday lows and 4-hour SMA100 – daily middle line of the Bollinger bands at 119.30 and we are now sitting above the 4-hour SMA200 at 117.20/00 in what seems to be a steep and poised to continue descent. I would expect a break of the support and further fall towards 116.00 (March 4 highs) as a first step, then 114.20/00 and daily SMA100 as second probable target. Should we bounce back to the upside we could be aiming towards 119.30/60 at the daily middle line of the bands.

GBPJPY

The Geppy is back today to a balance zone and presently trading at 133.90/80. Last week was bearish and almost reached our target at 135.00, closing on Friday near 135.40/50 zone (February former strong resistance level). We are on the way to reach our next target level of 133.30, maybe round number at 133.00/132.80 which is another significant support area with the confluence of the daily SMA100 and SMA200. From there I would expect a bounce back to the upside but will have to reassess price action if the above mentioned levels are reached. Support at 134.00 seems to be holding at the moment and we could have a correction to retest the broken staircase level at 135.60 before further bearish continuation.