Swiss Franc Weekly Update - April 22 close

EURCHF

Last week price went back inside the former weekly descending channel as expected, making a 61.8% correction on the previous swing high, and closing exactly at the level of the upper trend line, slightly above. We have a pin bar that has to be confirmed for a bullish continuation on weekly, and a consolidation over the last three days between the SMA100 and SMA34 levels forming an inside pinocchio pattern. I would expect a break of the SMA34 and continuation of the daily retracement towards psychological level 1.3000 and daily middle line of the Bollinger bands as first target, and March highs resistance at around 1.3050 on a second step. A third bullish target would be near 1.3100 and 61.8% retracement at the daily SMA200. If 1.3050 is broken we could expect a further move up for a retest of the highs at 1.3250 on a medium-term view. If the present support is broken though, price could fall towards the center of the descending channel and March lows at around 1.2425.

GBPCHF

Price has maintained its sideways attitude but in a slightly wider range, making an inside candle pattern on the weekly charts. I still expect a break and continuation to the downside towards round number 1.4400 and lower daily Bollinger band as first target, then a retest of March lows and 138.2% Fibonacci extension of the previous swing low, to reach 1.4360/1.4300. On the upside, there is a strong resistance area between 1.4750 and 1.4800, which would contain bullish attempts should they occur. On a longer term approach, price could fall even further on a 161.8% extension towards 1.4140/30 level, looking to make new lows.

USDCHF

The apparent double bottom was heavily broken last week on the Swissie, and it would seem that this pair has no intention to reverse to the upside for a while. However, the candle pattern on the daily charts gives us some expectations for a possible correction at least to the previous highs as first target around 0.8990/0.9000 and subsequently to the confluence of the daily middle line of the Bollinger bands and SMA34, at the top line of the descending channel. However, I think this pair will take some time building up strength for a greater correction or even possible reversal, and might surprise us again with further falls towards the 138.2% and even 161.8% extensions of the swing low, breaking the 127% that was reached last Thursday. In any case we should be wary of any signs of a sudden change in the market sentiment for the dollar.