Yen Pairs Weekly Update - April 22 close

USDJPY

The Dollar-Yen retraced down to the 38.2% weekly Fibonacci level, breaking past the barrier of the confluence of SMA34 and the middle line of the Bollinger bands. Further downside is on the lines to reach the other side at the lower band and psychological level 80.00. On the Daily charts, this represents a potential extension to the 127% and 138.2% levels from the previous swing low, which could go further to the 161.8% extension at around 79.30/00. This was another bearish week and the price dropped near our expected retracement levels but didn’t bounce back up. Price is now sitting on a Friday doji candle just below 82.00, there seems to be some support but I favor a bearish move given also the present tightening and confluence of daily moving averages and the fact that the weekly SMA34 was broken. We might have a retest move to 82.50/80 but overall the expectations are on the downside.

EURJPY

The Euro-Yen broke the support as expected and fell down to around 116.50, retesting the upper line of the weekly consolidation channel as well as the daily SMA34, and being rejected back to the upside. We have a pin bar on weekly that should be confirmed this week to consider a continuation of the bullish trend, with the expectations for a break of the SMA100, a retest of the highs and an extension towards round number 128.00 in the first place (127.90 as the 127% Fibonacci level). Further upside would lead us towards 130.00 (129.70 as the 138.2% weekly extension level). On the daily charts, I would expect price to reach 123.35 previous highs, and an extension to the 125.20/125.95 area (127% and 138.2% levels). Should price have another attempt to come back inside the previous channel, we would have to break 116.50 for a fall towards the SMA100 and SMA200 support area between the 138.2% and 161.8% extensions on the previous daily swing low, conservatively aiming for round number 114.00.

GBPJPY

The Geppy reached our expected target area making a new low at 133.05, and was rejected back to the 50% Fibonacci level where it closed above 135.50, at the middle line of the daily Bollinger bands. Bounce back to 135.60 was also performed, and we have a weekly pin bar yet to be confirmed for another attempt at the highs and weekly SMA100 at around 140.00. However my views on this pair are bearish and I would expect a break of last week’s lows for a run down to 132.00 where there is a confluence of daily SMA100 and SMA200. If this support level is broken we would be aiming to reach late march lows and 138.2% extension on the daily swing low at around 130.30/00.