Swiss Franc Weekly Update - Feb. 11/15 close

EURCHF

This pair ended last week at the top trend line of the weekly descending channel and SMA34, this level also being at the 61.8% retracement from the previous swing low. On the daily charts it almost reached the 127% Fibonacci extension ending 70 pips above the SMA100. The expected move was a bounce back down and continuation of the bearish move, as it effectively seemed to start happening over the last three days. However, price reached 1.2970 and bounced back over psychological level 1.3000, where it is hovering inside the confluence of the daily SMA100 (presently at 1.3050) and the middle line of the daily Bollinger bands at 1.3000. My actual views are for a continuation of the daily move to the upside for a test of the SMA200 nearing 1.3200.

GBPCHF

Last Friday ended on a doji with price near the level of the weekly SMA34, having broken the upper trend line of the descending weekly channel. I would expect a retest of the broken level at 1.5400 (which it has already done as of today after a consolidation over Monday and Tuesday) and a continuation to the upside aiming towards 1.6000/20 on the medium term for a retest of the previous weekly highs. Targets on a shorter term would be the 127% and 138.2% Fibonacci extensions at 1.5720 and 1.5830 if yesterday highs at 1.5680 do not hold as resistance. 

USDCHF

The Swissie barely breached the upper trend line of the weekly descending channel after breaking the bigger falling wedge which contained it, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on the previous swing low. We also would seem to have a double top on the daily charts. The expectations would favor the downside because Friday candle seemed to lose steam although it ended well above the SMA100. We have confirmed this bearish move which as of today has retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level, and price is now stalling above the daily SMA34 at 0.9580 from where I expect a continuation to the upside for an attempt to break the double top and reach 0.9850/0.9915 in extension.