Swiss Franc Weekly Update - Feb. 25 close

EURCHF

This pair had a second subsequent bearish week after its bounce back from the upper line of the descending channel. Price reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on Daily time frame and traded below the SMA34 for most of the week. A small rejection at this support and a hammer candle would probably be an indication that the Euro-Swiss Franc could revisit the highs and look for a break to the upside. However the tone is still very bearish and it is presently trading below Friday’s close, thus I would favor a continuation down to psychological number 1.2400 for a retest of the lows. Should we reverse, we would have to break the resistance level at 1.2900 and would be targeting 1.3080 as a first step (near the daily SMA100), then the previous highs at 1.3200 which are very near the daily SMA200.

GBPCHF

We seem to be building a huge head and shoulders pattern both on weekly and daily charts, having closed last week at the neckline level. From here the expectations would be for a formation of the right shoulder thus bullish up to 1.5200/1.5300, and a continuation back down afterwards to reach the projection of the potential head. This pair has been showing a tight consolidation between 1.4890 and 1.4990 for the last 40 trading hours (Thursday noon/early Monday) after its break of psychological level 1.5000. This could lead to another possible scenario for an inverted right shoulder to the potential H&S pattern, which scope would be around the 127% and 138.2% extensions of this swing. My views are however oriented to the bullish side, for a retest of the broken daily trend line which would coincide with the above H&S right shoulder level, at 1.5280/1.5300.

USDCHF

The Swissie made a new low last week and closed on a doji Friday candle. Price nearly made a 127% extension, reversing from previous swing range, and almost touched the lower line of the descending channel. The doji could be a pause for a further fall, and an attempt to reach 0.9000 could be on the lines, however I would expect some retracement towards 0.9500 (50% Fibonacci, middle line of the daily bands and SMA34). The price is presently trading in a tight range barely below Friday close, awaiting for the start of the stronger sessions of this week. We should have a better clue in the next few hours after Frankfurt and London markets begin.