Yen Pairs Weekly Update - Feb. 25 close

USDJPY

Another bearish week with greater momentum for the Dollar-Yen, nearly reaching the lower line of the symmetrical triangle. Price has almost given back all the gains made on the previous daily swing high and seems to be headed towards a retest of the lows near 81.15. Given the strength of last week’s candle, I would expect a further fall towards strong psychological number 80.00, a little below October 2010 lows. A bounce back to the upside would have 82.50/60 as primary target, then the upper trend line of the triangle at around 83.50. However my present bias is oriented to the bearish side by now, also taking into account the huge weekly bearish flag that charts show.

EURJPY

This pair made an attempt to break its weekly triangle formation but came back down and closed near the daily SMA34. The ascending trend line was broken and I would expect first of all a retest of the line near 114.00 before a bearish continuation takes place. The week has given a good start for that retest and we are now trading at around 112.50. The levels that I would be targeting are placed at around 110.50/110.00 and depending on the subsequent price action the projection of the head and shoulders that we were considering two weeks ago could take place soon from there but probably not this week. The right shoulder still has to form and I believe it will in a similar manner as it did the left one, with some consolidation along the upper line of the triangle.

GBPJPY

The Geppy did a neat retracement on a single candle down to the 38.2% Fibonacci and middle line of the weekly Bollinger Bands. There is still room to reach a 61.8% retracement and retest the broken descending trend line, I would expect a fall towards the previous lows at around 129.60/50. This might take some time as this week has started with the Geppy testing the resistance at 132.00, we could go up to 132.40 which is the daily SMA34 but basically I expect it to fall to the lows before an attempt to revisit the previous week highs at 135.55 is made.