Swiss Franc Weekly Update - May 13 close

EURCHF

Price barely made a new low but turned back and spent all last week consolidating inside the lower bottom range of the previous weekly bearish candle, and ending on a hammer.

On the daily charts the 138.2% Fibonacci extension level was reached and the pair bounced back from a tweezer bottom on Tuesday, almost reaching the recently broken support level. This week has started turning again to the downside, and I would expect a break of last week’s lows to reach our former targets at support levels 1.2420 (161.8% daily extension), 1.2200 and 1.2100 (127% weekly extension and 138.2% extension at the bottom of the channel).

On the bullish side, there is still a possibility for price to attempt a retest of the break at 1.2700/20, a move which might continue to 1.2790/1.2800 (daily SMA34).

GBPCHF

An inside candle week, tight and mildly ascending range for the Pound-CHF which stills tries to break last week highs as of now, however pointing back to the lows. 1.4520/50 is a strong resistance area and I would favor a break down and extension to 1.3900/1.3800 (weekly and daily 127% levels respectively) unless we get a double bottom at around 1.4100. If so, a bounce back towards actual levels would be the first target to the upside, with further possible push to the 50% retracement level at 1.4650, and 1.4780/1.4800 as third target, near the weekly middle line of the Bollinger bands.

USDCHF

The Swissie reached our last week’s target at 0.8925 and seems to be slowly recovering, although this week has started with a retest of the broken level at the round number 0.8800. I keep watching the other bullish targets: the 61.8% Fibonacci level at around 0.9050, 0.9260 at the daily SMA100 and 0.9345/50 at the previous daily highs. At present the price is hovering above the round number support and I don’t think it should go lower than that but beware of a break below which could bring us back again to a retest of the lows near 0.8550.