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The Swissie broke down through March 2008 all-time lows and is now hovering around the break area testing if the level will hold as a resistance. The lower downtrend line has been confirmed on weekly charts and I would expect a pullback to the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0590, but there are other steps to be attained and breached at 0.9900, 1.0130, 1.0330 and 1.0400. Weekly time frame looks like a bottom, however there is plenty of room on monthly charts for a further fall towards 0.8270-0.8300 at the lower downtrend line. Daily charts are showing a consolidation period after last week’s confirmed pin bar, and a return to parity is quite possible, medium term.

My views on this pair are bullish targeting a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement to 1.0330/40, with a longer term possibility of extension to 1.09-1.10 for a 61.8% pullback and attainment of the upper trend line of the descending weekly channel.

Daily assessment on Friday October 15, 2010 – at market’s close.


USDCHF

RES2

RES1

SUP 1

SUP 2

R/R

FORECAST

PRICE ACTION

Monthly

1.5772

1.1285

0.9641

0.9470

1:3

Bullish

Falling wedge

Weekly

1.2300

1.0426

0.9711

0.9529

1:3

Bearish

Descending triangle

Daily

1.1734

0.9814

0.9557

0.9514

1:2

Bullish

Ranging – small candles





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