May 2013 Blog Posts (13)

EUR/USD: Trend-Line Still Supporting

The EUR/USD exchange rate is trading slightly above the July '12 trend-line. The thick band of resistance at 1.2980 including the 50-day MA is preventing further upside. A decisive break above 1.3000 would be necessary to trigger a stronger move higher to the 1.3170 highs. It's looking less likely the trend-line will break and we will get a bearish…

EUR/USD: Bouncing Off Trend-Line

The EUR/USD exchange rate is still trading on the July '12 trend-line however it is rising bullishly at the moment. We have had a surge this morning which has taken it up to 1.2980 where a thick band of resistance, including the 50-day MA is situated. If it manages to break above 1.3000 then it is possible we could see a move higher to the 1.3170 highs.…

AUD/USD: Bouncing in Down-Trend

The aussie has resumed its descent and reached close to previous lows at 0.9580 which might be expected to provide support. It has recovered strongly today and climbed back up although it will meet resistance at 0.9765 from the down-sloping trend-line for the move, at which point it could stop and resume its descent. The 0.9387 lows are next in focus…

EUR/USD: Trend-Line Broken

Eurodollar has broken down and closed below the major trend-line from the July '12 lows, which is a bearish indication. This morning there has been a recovery to 1.2860 but it is unlikely to go much higher as upside is capped by the underside of the trend-line just breached and a thick grouping of pivots and moving averages at 1.2870. The trend-line break…

AUD/USD: Attempting Triangle Breakout

The aussie dollar has fallen to a major support level provided by the lower boundary of the multi-month triangle it has been moving in on the long-term charts. It looks poised to break lower after showing even more weakness today. It has broken down through the monthly pivot which was adding its weight to support at 0.9835. However, a daily close…

EUR/USD: Supported By Trend-Line

Eurodollar has now fallen to support from a trend-line and major pivots at around 1.2860. It is currently consolidating at this level. If it breaks down and closes below the trend-line then it will signal a bearish reversal with a downside target of 1.2450 – although the monthly pivot at 1.2580 is a closer more achievable target. Alternatively a strong…

AUD/USD: Close to Triangle Border

The aussie has broken down out of the sideways consolidation range on the weekly chart. It will probably now eventually fall to the lower border of the multi-month triangle at 0.9780, however, it has already reached strong support from the level of the monthly pivot at 0.9830, which could lead to a bounce first, with a move above 0.9920 giving bullish confirmation of a…

AUD/USD: bear move hits range lows

The down-trend in the aussie continues and has gained fresh impetus from news of an RBA's rate cut. It has now reached the region of the box range lows at 1.0150 where it could begin to consolidate or even bounce. The monthly pivot at 1.0195 adds further support, however, there are no signs of reversal yet and given the RBA action the probabilities may…

EUR/USD: Long-Term P&F Target

A long-term target of 1.4100 has been fixed on the 50 pip box point & figure chart as illustrated below. This is quite a reliable chart for trading longer-term based on results from the last 12 years. Now to activate the target and trigger a trading opportunity the exchange rate would have to move up to 1.3250 in the current column. This would also…

AUD/USD: Correcting Down-move

The current rally in the aussie which began on the 2nd of May is probably a correction which will run out of steam, most probably at 1.0345 where the 50-day MA and a down-sloping trend-line intersect. After that we could see the next leg lower take shape, falling down to 1.0195 initially but ultimately to the wider consolidation lows at 1.0150. Alternatively,…

EUR/USD: Bearish signs, ECB on tap

Eurodollar has stalled in its up-trend and formed a bearish shooting-star candle on the daily chart. On the hourly chart there is a head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 1.3145. If the pair breaks below the neckline it will probably move down towards the trend-line at 1.3085. Alternatively it is possible the up-trend could resume again, with a…