Forex4you's Blog (405)

EUR/USD: Trend-Line Still Supporting

The EUR/USD exchange rate is trading slightly above the July '12 trend-line. The thick band of resistance at 1.2980 including the 50-day MA is preventing further upside. A decisive break above 1.3000 would be necessary to trigger a stronger move higher to the 1.3170 highs. It's looking less likely the trend-line will break and we will get a bearish…

EUR/USD: Bouncing Off Trend-Line

The EUR/USD exchange rate is still trading on the July '12 trend-line however it is rising bullishly at the moment. We have had a surge this morning which has taken it up to 1.2980 where a thick band of resistance, including the 50-day MA is situated. If it manages to break above 1.3000 then it is possible we could see a move higher to the 1.3170 highs.…

AUD/USD: Bouncing in Down-Trend

The aussie has resumed its descent and reached close to previous lows at 0.9580 which might be expected to provide support. It has recovered strongly today and climbed back up although it will meet resistance at 0.9765 from the down-sloping trend-line for the move, at which point it could stop and resume its descent. The 0.9387 lows are next in focus…

EUR/USD: Trend-Line Broken

Eurodollar has broken down and closed below the major trend-line from the July '12 lows, which is a bearish indication. This morning there has been a recovery to 1.2860 but it is unlikely to go much higher as upside is capped by the underside of the trend-line just breached and a thick grouping of pivots and moving averages at 1.2870. The trend-line break…

AUD/USD: Attempting Triangle Breakout

The aussie dollar has fallen to a major support level provided by the lower boundary of the multi-month triangle it has been moving in on the long-term charts. It looks poised to break lower after showing even more weakness today. It has broken down through the monthly pivot which was adding its weight to support at 0.9835. However, a daily close…

EUR/USD: Supported By Trend-Line

Eurodollar has now fallen to support from a trend-line and major pivots at around 1.2860. It is currently consolidating at this level. If it breaks down and closes below the trend-line then it will signal a bearish reversal with a downside target of 1.2450 – although the monthly pivot at 1.2580 is a closer more achievable target. Alternatively a strong…

AUD/USD: Close to Triangle Border

The aussie has broken down out of the sideways consolidation range on the weekly chart. It will probably now eventually fall to the lower border of the multi-month triangle at 0.9780, however, it has already reached strong support from the level of the monthly pivot at 0.9830, which could lead to a bounce first, with a move above 0.9920 giving bullish confirmation of a…

AUD/USD: bear move hits range lows

The down-trend in the aussie continues and has gained fresh impetus from news of an RBA's rate cut. It has now reached the region of the box range lows at 1.0150 where it could begin to consolidate or even bounce. The monthly pivot at 1.0195 adds further support, however, there are no signs of reversal yet and given the RBA action the probabilities may…

EUR/USD: Long-Term P&F Target

A long-term target of 1.4100 has been fixed on the 50 pip box point & figure chart as illustrated below. This is quite a reliable chart for trading longer-term based on results from the last 12 years. Now to activate the target and trigger a trading opportunity the exchange rate would have to move up to 1.3250 in the current column. This would also…

AUD/USD: Correcting Down-move

The current rally in the aussie which began on the 2nd of May is probably a correction which will run out of steam, most probably at 1.0345 where the 50-day MA and a down-sloping trend-line intersect. After that we could see the next leg lower take shape, falling down to 1.0195 initially but ultimately to the wider consolidation lows at 1.0150. Alternatively,…

EUR/USD: Bearish signs, ECB on tap

Eurodollar has stalled in its up-trend and formed a bearish shooting-star candle on the daily chart. On the hourly chart there is a head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 1.3145. If the pair breaks below the neckline it will probably move down towards the trend-line at 1.3085. Alternatively it is possible the up-trend could resume again, with a…

EUR/USD: Rising within a consolidation

Overall the EUR/USD pair is trading in a chaotic range in between 1.3180 and 1.2980. Within that sideways band, however, it seems to currently have an upside bias. A break above the 1.3120 highs would be key in confirming a continuation higher, with an upside target at 1.3160 where the 100-day MA is situated. Today has been a down day so far,…

EUR/USD: Bearish Short-Term Bias

The EUR/USD pair is trading sideways after recovered from a possible H&S top. This morning prices have risen within the range and re-touched the 50-day MA from where they will probably pull-back. The overall short-term trend remains bearish and a decisive break below the trend-line at 1.2995 would probably lead to a move down to 1.2890. To get bullish…

AUD/USD: Pull-Back From Resistance

The aussie's rebound hit combined resistance at 1.0345 and started to fall again. It is possible it could be resuming its down-trend. A decisive break below the key 1.0295 lows at the base of the rising channel which it has been moving in would be required in order to signal a continuation lower, with the 1.0250 level then in sight and possibly the…

AUD/USD: Continuing Towards Range Lows

The aussie is falling in the short-term and it will probably continue weakening until it reaches the weekly and monthly pivots at 1.0185 and then the recent lows at 1.0115. Longer-term, price action is oscillating within a large box range between highs of 1.0595 and lows of roughly 1.0150, at the upper edge of a multi-month triangle. A break below…

EUR/USD: Down-Trend Resuming

Yesterday's steep sell-off signalled a probable resumption of the down-trend. A break below 1.3001 would now confirm the next leg down with the 200-day MA at 1.2905 providing the next target lower, and then possibly 1.2800 at the level of a key trend-line. Given the current high volatility there is still a possibility of a move higher, although it is less…

AUD/USD: Change of Trend

The aussie's break below the previous swing low at 1.0348 was key in establishing a reversal from bull to bear trend. The sell-off continues to the 50-day MA where the pair is currently consolidating . It will probably continue lower and retest the 1.0290 lows and then perhaps consolidate further before the next leg down. There is a possibility of move all the way…

EUR/USD: Consolidating - Drifting Lower

Eurodollar continues to consolidate and drift lower. It has rebounded back up from the range lows today and now faces resistance from the 50-day MA at 1.3095. It is possible the pair could be forming a bullish flag which could trigger a rally after breaking above the 50-day and range highs at 1.3125, leading to a move up to 1.3445. It is also…

AUD/USD: Meeting The 200-Day MA

The aussie rallied up strongly to the monthly pivot at 1.0565 and met tough resistance at that level. From there it has sold off heavily today, moving back inside the multi-month triangle. So strong is the sell-off today that the pair has fallen to the level of the 200-day MA at 1.0390. This is likely to offer substantial support and we may see some sort of…

EUR/USD: Falling Within Range

The EUR/USD pair has reached the 50-day MA and is consolidating. It is currently falling down within its range and will probably continue a little lower until it reaches support from the monthly pivot at 1.3035. It may bounce from this area or continue lower, although a decisive break below 1.3035 would be required to signal more downside, with the next…