All Blog Posts (1,487)

EUR/USD: Down-Trend Resuming

Yesterday's steep sell-off signalled a probable resumption of the down-trend. A break below 1.3001 would now confirm the next leg down with the 200-day MA at 1.2905 providing the next target lower, and then possibly 1.2800 at the level of a key trend-line. Given the current high volatility there is still a possibility of a move higher, although it is less…

AUD/USD: Change of Trend

The aussie's break below the previous swing low at 1.0348 was key in establishing a reversal from bull to bear trend. The sell-off continues to the 50-day MA where the pair is currently consolidating . It will probably continue lower and retest the 1.0290 lows and then perhaps consolidate further before the next leg down. There is a possibility of move all the way…

EUR/USD: Consolidating - Drifting Lower

Eurodollar continues to consolidate and drift lower. It has rebounded back up from the range lows today and now faces resistance from the 50-day MA at 1.3095. It is possible the pair could be forming a bullish flag which could trigger a rally after breaking above the 50-day and range highs at 1.3125, leading to a move up to 1.3445. It is also…

AUD/USD: Meeting The 200-Day MA

The aussie rallied up strongly to the monthly pivot at 1.0565 and met tough resistance at that level. From there it has sold off heavily today, moving back inside the multi-month triangle. So strong is the sell-off today that the pair has fallen to the level of the 200-day MA at 1.0390. This is likely to offer substantial support and we may see some sort of…

EUR/USD: Falling Within Range

The EUR/USD pair has reached the 50-day MA and is consolidating. It is currently falling down within its range and will probably continue a little lower until it reaches support from the monthly pivot at 1.3035. It may bounce from this area or continue lower, although a decisive break below 1.3035 would be required to signal more downside, with the next…

EUR/USD: Up-Trend Continues

Eurodollar has broken above the monthly pivot at 1.3045 and risen up sharply. It is close to resistance from the 50-day MA in the 1.3130s. If it breaks above the 50-day then it may rise even further to a possible target at 1.3245. Currently there are no signs the short-term up-trend may be about to end. Several targets at the current level have been hit but…

AUD/USD: Poised for Bullish Breakout

The double top on the aussie failed to reach its downside target and instead there has been a strong recovery to the recent highs at 1.0495. There may be a broadening formation pattern unfolding on the 4-hour chart with upside potential. A decisive break above 1.0500 could see a move up to 1.0650 although the monthly pivot at 1.0565 is also likely to…

EUR/USD: Bullish Reversal

The EUR/USD pair has probably reversed its down-trend. It's most recent rally has formed a consolidation after hitting several upside targets. This could be a bull flag since we have also had a breakout from the expanding wedge pattern, and it will probably lead to a break higher and move to the 50-day MA at 1.3145 and finally 1.3220. A thrust above 1.3050 could…

AUD/USD: Double Top



After recent weakness led to a tentative break below the neckline of a double top at the 1.0380 level there is a chance we might see a move lower now to the target for the pattern at 1.0270. The picture looks bearish but a move back below the 1.0354 lows would give added downside confirmation. Upside is capped by major resistance form the multi-month triangle border…

EUR/USD: Consolidating Before Key News

Eurodollar is trading in a narrow range before the ECB rate-meeting later this morning. A bearish flag pattern may have formed with the potential for a break lower reaching a downside target initially at support at 1.2660 and then possibly eventually 1.2505. Upside is less likely and is capped by the 200-day MA and the monthly pivot in the 1.2880-90 area, and a…

Pomo Schedule

Bernanke_pours

Everyone at Trading Advantage hopes you had a great holiday, with plenty of relaxation and good times with the family.  It was with family over this extended weekend that generated this post.  When discussing the markets (which I can never avoid) the Fed came up, but specifically how the Fed is “supporting” the markets via POMO.

POMO is the Fed’s acronym for Permanent Open Market Operations.  From the FRBNYs website we read its…

Indecision

Who’s Next?

venus

When the US housing market was starting to fall apart Ben Bernanke made a now rather famous statement because he was so wrong.  Regarding the situation he said on March 28, 2007 “At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.”

On which planet of the solar system it was contained, he did…

EUR/USD: Continuation Down

Eurodollar is falling again and has broken down below the 1.2780 level confirming a renewal of the down-trend. This means it is likely to fall to a new downside target at 1.2650 measured from the pennant formed earlier, although 1.2675 provides an nearer target. Alternatively, if there is a rebound then one would expect upside caped by the 200-day MA at 1.2865, with a…

EUR/USD: Bearish Potential

Eurodollar has fallen back down making new lows. Importantly it has reached the 200-day MA and is consolidating at that level. We still don't have a decisive break below and would require a move under the monthly pivot at 1.2815 to support the bearish case. Currently it looks like a flag pattern could be forming on the 4hr chart with a downside target at 1.2650. More…