May 2012 Blog Posts (19)

There’s always a bright side to things, just ask the markets.



All three headline composites of the latest Case Shiller home price index were lower for the first quarter 2012. In fact, home prices in many cities are at the lowest levels since the housing crisis began.



This “good news” combined with the other “good news,” Greece being such a gigantic financial disaster that it’s getting kicked out of the Euro, propelled the market higher.



If we are going to…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The price declined lower and breached 1.2470 level, mentioned earlier as the target. At the moment the price is attempting to hold below this support, trading is carried out at 1.2450/40 level. If the bears succeed, the next target at 1.2400/1.2390 support will be tested any time soon after. On the other hand, currently forming MACD divergence suggest to be cautious and consider a possibility of the upcoming large-scale pullback. The fact,…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Eurodollar has rebounded from its lows today and - although it is stalling right now - there is the possibility of a move higher to the top of the range at around 1.2600. After that a sideways consolidation range could unfold before the next strong trending move. Alternatively another strong break lower would target the support level at 1.2395 and longer-term this level will probably be reached eventually as the outlook remains…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

A shooting star on the 4-hr chart is warning of further downside and there is the possibility of a bearish move to fill the gap at 1.2520. Beyond that the outlook is balanced as the head and shoulder's pattern has reached its downside target at 1.2525 and Friday formed an inverted hammer which could forecast more upside. If today remains above Friday's lows then it is possible there will be a reversal upswing, reaching 1.2642 at first and…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The rebound from the 1.2510 lows this morning looks vulnerable to breakdown and there is a bearish shooting star on the hourly sitting on the 50 hour MA, which could signal a retest of the lows again and either a basing process will start or the pair will fall even lower. If there is no retest, however, and the rally extends higher, a possible target to the upside could be the 1.2645 level where the monthly and weekly pivots are…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The price breached 1.2620 support, which indicated further possible decline towards new local minimums. Trading is currently carried out at 1.2550/40 levels. Indicators are turned down, suggesting to expect new targets to be tested at 1.2470 - 1.2400/1.2390 levels. However, a cluster of strong supports on the way may halt the pair and trigger consolidation with 1.2620/25 resistance as the upper bound.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The key reversal on Friday indicates the bullish rebound will probably continue higher. Today, however, we are pulling back, probably temporarily, perhaps down to the 50% retracement of the previous rally at 1.2725. This could be the B wave of an ABC with C still to come. When the correction has completed it could start to rally again with an upside target, initially, at the previous highs of 1.2810 but then probably at wave equality with…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Eurodollar is forming reversal patterns at the lows which could indicate a bounce if confirmed. A hammer is forming on the daily and 4-hr charts. The measuring gap target at 1.2730 has been reached; the weekly pivot is supporting and not far below is the rarely touched S3 monthly pivot. There is further support from old trend-lines on the 50 pip and 10 pip point and figure charts. A bounce higher would probably reach resistance at 1.2810…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

Eurodollar has bounced off the monthly pivot at the 1.2820 level and begun rising sharply. This is probably a short-covering rally before the larger down-trend resumes. We could see it rise up to the consolidation level at 1.2925/35 and then roll-over. After that, the major down-trend should push the pair lower and reach the target from yesterday's measuring gap at 1.2730, before probably retouching the 1.2625 lows.…

EUR/USD: technical analysis

The price kept on consolidating within earlier reached minimums. If trades escape from the bearish flag, which is currently being formed, the price will most likely drop towards 1.3060 support and then to 1.3000 level. Indicators say in favor of such scenario. As for the current session, it's worth taking into account the US upcoming employment report, which can become a significant driver for the market. Therefore, we suggest being careful…

EUR/USD: technical analysis

Yesterday's move down was strong and I think it is likely there will be a continuation lower to the support level and H&S neckline at 1.3000. However, at the moment the pair has consolidated on the 50-day moving average and it may bounce higher to 1.3200 before any resumption of the down-trend, as momentum looks poised for a bounce and the hourly candlesticks turn more bullish.…

EUR/USD: Technical Analysis

The eurodollar pair has fallen in another leg lower after reaching the 1.3285 highs yesterday. It will probably continue lower to a lower channel-line at 1.3150 where it may consolidate - or recover perhaps to 1.3200. A deeper sell-off might see us retest the neckline of the large head & shoulders pattern on the daily chart, and a break below that would see us well on our way into sub one-thirty territory.…