All Blog Posts (1,487)

USDCAD

Monthly Overview - March 2011

Still on a steep descent and inside a falling wedge,  the Loonie ended February on a lower low at 0.9720. I would expect a continuation to reach the lower line of the wedge, near October 2007 lows at around 0.9400. A further extension to reach 161.8% Fibonacci level would bring us to…

USDJPY

Monthly Overview - March 2011

We have another month ending on a hammer candle for the Dollar-Yen, sitting above the lows and inside a falling wedge that is contained by the descending channel. A further fall in extension to the 127% Fibonacci is…

SWISS FRANC



EURCHF

Monthly Overview - March 2011

Price bounced from the monthly falling wedge and 50% retracement on previous swing low, leaving a pin bar that March candle should confirm for a continuation to the downside. However this is a reversal pattern and another scenario could be a break above the…

EURO AND POUND

EURUSD

Monthly Overview - March 2011

Euro-Dollar ended February while still below the steeper bearish trend line that formed from last November highs, showing a doji candle but with price sitting just a little above the SMA34, at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from June 2010 lows. A…

The EUR/USD pair rallied up to 1.4050 as anticipated and then met stiff resistance from the juncture of major trendlines there. It has rolled over and fallen to 1.3920. There is a channel line supporting at 1.3915 but if it breaks through then that opens the way down to the target for the H&S pattern on the hourly chart at 1.3872. There is also support and resistance at 1.3860; and statistically we know there is good chance price will close above 1.3850. This seems to point to an…

In this study I have attempted to go back to the very basic elements of price – open, close, high, low, daily range, daily change – and attempted to analyse these phenomena statistically.

Latter I discuss my conclusions and possible ways in which they can be used in trading.

The study was undertaken using the EUR/USD pair, using daily data only.

Types of days

In…

As this happens to be my post number 100, I would like to dedicate it in exclusive to a thorough analysis of the Australian versus American Dollar, AUDUSD, which is the pair that I mostly trade. The other monthly analysis for the remaining 11 pairs will be presented as usual in my next article.

Although the charts were taken approximately one hour behind the…

USDCAD

The Loonie broke the lower descending daily trend line, reaching a 127% reversal on previous swing high, while ending at the weekly lower line of a falling wedge, closing ten pips below 0.9800. Price has continued on the bearish side since this week’s market opening, and I would expect a further push towards 0.9720/0.9700 where we have the next…

USDJPY

Another bearish week with greater momentum for the Dollar-Yen, nearly reaching the lower line of the symmetrical triangle. Price has almost given back all the gains made on the previous daily swing high and seems to be headed towards a retest of the lows near 81.15. Given the strength of last week’s candle, I would expect a further fall…

EURCHF

This pair had a second subsequent bearish week after its bounce back from the upper line of the descending channel. Price reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on Daily time frame and traded below the SMA34 for most of the week. A small rejection at this support and a hammer candle would probably be an indication that the Euro-Swiss Franc…

EURUSD

A little higher than previous week but still inside the boundaries of the weekly symmetrical triangle, the Euro-Dollar nearly reached January highs and closed just above the SMA100 level. On the Daily charts, we could be having a double top but there is still room for a break to reach the extension at 127% or 138.2% with a target at the…

USDCAD

Daily bullish pin bar on last Thursday was confirmed and the expectations for a correction to the upside were right, however we experienced a rejection from the upper Bollinger bands on Wednesday, after having reached the upper line of the daily falling wedge forming now a bearish pin bar yet to be confirmed at today’s close. However we have…

USDJPY

Last week the Dollar-Yen made a bearish move after a higher weekly high, bouncing from the SMA34 and still inside a symmetrical triangle. Daily charts show a retracement on previous swing high, ending near the 38.2% level on Friday. I was expecting a further retracement down to the 50% level on both time frames, around 82.50/60 (middle line of…

EURCHF

This pair started a leg down last week after bouncing from the weekly SMA34 and top of the descending channel, meanwhile it ended with a doji and at the bottom ascending trend line on the daily charts, just above the SMA34. The outlook is bearish as we have seen after the week end (though we had thought of a possible bounce up to psychological…