Caroline Carlin's Blog (169)

USDCAD

The Loonie ended last week on a doji candle just above 0.9700, after making a new low. Friday was a bearish day as for almost pairs as a result of Japan tragic events, nevertheless and though still needing to be confirmed, I was favoring a bullish move and correction towards the upper line of the descending channel, at a 61.8% Fibonacci…

The terrible and devastating events experienced in Japan after last Friday’s earthquake, the resulting tsunami and on top of this the succesive explosions at Fukushima’s nuclear power plant reflected on its currency with an initial sharp fall that quickly reversed into a heavy buying, which can be explained by speculator’s expectations of future demand from businesses for the japanese Yen due to the massive rebuilding task that lies ahead for the ravaged country. All major currency pairs…

The Euro vs. Swiss Franc reached the middle line of the weekly Bollinger bands and nearly touched the upper trend line of the descending channel, being rejected thereafter and closing near the 38% Fibonacci level on last long swing high. On the daily charts, the week started with a tight consolidation followed by a correction but Friday closed at…

EURUSD

Last week the price on the Euro-Dollar bounced back down from the SMA200 to the previous 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, closing at 1.3900. I would favor a continuation to the upside towards previous highs near 1.4300. On the daily charts we see a bullish Friday and aiming to reach the upper level of the channel and previous Monday…

USDCAD

Monthly Overview - March 2011

Still on a steep descent and inside a falling wedge,  the Loonie ended February on a lower low at 0.9720. I would expect a continuation to reach the lower line of the wedge, near October 2007 lows at around 0.9400. A further extension to reach 161.8% Fibonacci level would bring us to…

USDJPY

Monthly Overview - March 2011

We have another month ending on a hammer candle for the Dollar-Yen, sitting above the lows and inside a falling wedge that is contained by the descending channel. A further fall in extension to the 127% Fibonacci is…

SWISS FRANC



EURCHF

Monthly Overview - March 2011

Price bounced from the monthly falling wedge and 50% retracement on previous swing low, leaving a pin bar that March candle should confirm for a continuation to the downside. However this is a reversal pattern and another scenario could be a break above the…

EURO AND POUND

EURUSD

Monthly Overview - March 2011

Euro-Dollar ended February while still below the steeper bearish trend line that formed from last November highs, showing a doji candle but with price sitting just a little above the SMA34, at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from June 2010 lows. A…

As this happens to be my post number 100, I would like to dedicate it in exclusive to a thorough analysis of the Australian versus American Dollar, AUDUSD, which is the pair that I mostly trade. The other monthly analysis for the remaining 11 pairs will be presented as usual in my next article.

Although the charts were taken approximately one hour behind the…

USDCAD

The Loonie broke the lower descending daily trend line, reaching a 127% reversal on previous swing high, while ending at the weekly lower line of a falling wedge, closing ten pips below 0.9800. Price has continued on the bearish side since this week’s market opening, and I would expect a further push towards 0.9720/0.9700 where we have the next…

USDJPY

Another bearish week with greater momentum for the Dollar-Yen, nearly reaching the lower line of the symmetrical triangle. Price has almost given back all the gains made on the previous daily swing high and seems to be headed towards a retest of the lows near 81.15. Given the strength of last week’s candle, I would expect a further fall…

EURCHF

This pair had a second subsequent bearish week after its bounce back from the upper line of the descending channel. Price reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on Daily time frame and traded below the SMA34 for most of the week. A small rejection at this support and a hammer candle would probably be an indication that the Euro-Swiss Franc…

EURUSD

A little higher than previous week but still inside the boundaries of the weekly symmetrical triangle, the Euro-Dollar nearly reached January highs and closed just above the SMA100 level. On the Daily charts, we could be having a double top but there is still room for a break to reach the extension at 127% or 138.2% with a target at the…

USDCAD

Daily bullish pin bar on last Thursday was confirmed and the expectations for a correction to the upside were right, however we experienced a rejection from the upper Bollinger bands on Wednesday, after having reached the upper line of the daily falling wedge forming now a bearish pin bar yet to be confirmed at today’s close. However we have…

USDJPY

Last week the Dollar-Yen made a bearish move after a higher weekly high, bouncing from the SMA34 and still inside a symmetrical triangle. Daily charts show a retracement on previous swing high, ending near the 38.2% level on Friday. I was expecting a further retracement down to the 50% level on both time frames, around 82.50/60 (middle line of…

EURCHF

This pair started a leg down last week after bouncing from the weekly SMA34 and top of the descending channel, meanwhile it ended with a doji and at the bottom ascending trend line on the daily charts, just above the SMA34. The outlook is bearish as we have seen after the week end (though we had thought of a possible bounce up to psychological…

EURUSD

The Euro-Dollar has been trading inside a symmetrical triangle formation and ended last Friday at the weekly SMA100 level, barely above the middle line of the daily Bollinger Bands, also with a similar formation. I would expect a break to the upside towards the previous daily highs at around 1.3860 as first target, and then a further bullish…

USDCAD

The Loonie gained and gave back almost all gains on a very volatile week, ending with a long-wicked hammer on weekly charts, and a 100-pip bearish candle on the daily charts. This pair seems to be still consolidating despite its struggle to pierce through parity, and is hovering mostly between 0.9830 and 0.9990. The last three days have been…

USDJPY

Last week this pair broke above the upper trend line of the weekly descending channel inscribed in a falling wedge, nearly reaching the SMA34 at the end of the week. Daily charts formed an apparent double top yet to be confirmed at that point. On the last two days, the Dollar-Yen broke over Friday highs at 83.68 coming near psychological level…

EURCHF

This pair ended last week at the top trend line of the weekly descending channel and SMA34, this level also being at the 61.8% retracement from the previous swing low. On the daily charts it almost reached the 127% Fibonacci extension ending 70 pips above the SMA100. The expected move was a bounce back down and continuation of the…