Caroline Carlin's Blog – February 2011 Archive (20)

USDCAD

The Loonie broke the lower descending daily trend line, reaching a 127% reversal on previous swing high, while ending at the weekly lower line of a falling wedge, closing ten pips below 0.9800. Price has continued on the bearish side since this week’s market opening, and I would expect a further push towards 0.9720/0.9700 where we have the next…

USDJPY

Another bearish week with greater momentum for the Dollar-Yen, nearly reaching the lower line of the symmetrical triangle. Price has almost given back all the gains made on the previous daily swing high and seems to be headed towards a retest of the lows near 81.15. Given the strength of last week’s candle, I would expect a further fall…

EURCHF

This pair had a second subsequent bearish week after its bounce back from the upper line of the descending channel. Price reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on Daily time frame and traded below the SMA34 for most of the week. A small rejection at this support and a hammer candle would probably be an indication that the Euro-Swiss Franc…

EURUSD

A little higher than previous week but still inside the boundaries of the weekly symmetrical triangle, the Euro-Dollar nearly reached January highs and closed just above the SMA100 level. On the Daily charts, we could be having a double top but there is still room for a break to reach the extension at 127% or 138.2% with a target at the…

USDCAD

Daily bullish pin bar on last Thursday was confirmed and the expectations for a correction to the upside were right, however we experienced a rejection from the upper Bollinger bands on Wednesday, after having reached the upper line of the daily falling wedge forming now a bearish pin bar yet to be confirmed at today’s close. However we have…

USDJPY

Last week the Dollar-Yen made a bearish move after a higher weekly high, bouncing from the SMA34 and still inside a symmetrical triangle. Daily charts show a retracement on previous swing high, ending near the 38.2% level on Friday. I was expecting a further retracement down to the 50% level on both time frames, around 82.50/60 (middle line of…

EURCHF

This pair started a leg down last week after bouncing from the weekly SMA34 and top of the descending channel, meanwhile it ended with a doji and at the bottom ascending trend line on the daily charts, just above the SMA34. The outlook is bearish as we have seen after the week end (though we had thought of a possible bounce up to psychological…

EURUSD

The Euro-Dollar has been trading inside a symmetrical triangle formation and ended last Friday at the weekly SMA100 level, barely above the middle line of the daily Bollinger Bands, also with a similar formation. I would expect a break to the upside towards the previous daily highs at around 1.3860 as first target, and then a further bullish…

USDCAD

The Loonie gained and gave back almost all gains on a very volatile week, ending with a long-wicked hammer on weekly charts, and a 100-pip bearish candle on the daily charts. This pair seems to be still consolidating despite its struggle to pierce through parity, and is hovering mostly between 0.9830 and 0.9990. The last three days have been…

USDJPY

Last week this pair broke above the upper trend line of the weekly descending channel inscribed in a falling wedge, nearly reaching the SMA34 at the end of the week. Daily charts formed an apparent double top yet to be confirmed at that point. On the last two days, the Dollar-Yen broke over Friday highs at 83.68 coming near psychological level…

EURCHF

This pair ended last week at the top trend line of the weekly descending channel and SMA34, this level also being at the 61.8% retracement from the previous swing low. On the daily charts it almost reached the 127% Fibonacci extension ending 70 pips above the SMA100. The expected move was a bounce back down and continuation of the…

EURUSD

This week seems to be poised for a continuation to the downside for the Euro-Dollar, with a confirmed pin bar on the weekly charts and Friday’s close below the daily SMA100. We have been seeing a consolidation between 1.3550 and 1.3420 since Monday and I would favor a further push down to the 61.8% daily Fibonacci retracement on…

USDCAD

Last week was bearish for the Loonie, following a daily pin bar at the beginning of the period. The pair consolidated for the last three days of the previous week and has started a move back up reaching above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and presently trading between 0.9930/50 level, respectively the middle line of the daily Bollinger bands…

USDJPY

The Dollar-Yen has been trading and following along the upper trend line of the weekly descending channel and middle line of Bollinger Bands since early January, and only today has started to pierce to the upside but barely trading above. On the daily charts, we have a double bottom which can be a signal for a good bullish correction, however…

EURCHF

This pair is still trading inside a descending weekly channel and performing a bullish correction which should reach the upper line of the channel and SMA34 at 1.3280/1.3300 as a first step (61.8% weekly Fibonacci retracement on previous swing low and 127/138.2% extension on previous daily swing high). Should the channel break to the upside,…

EURUSD

Last week the Euro-Dollar ended on a bearish pin bar yet to be confirmed, with price at the SMA100 level and still inside the symmetrical triangle formation. On daily charts, price reached the lower trend line of a rising wedge, ending just above SMA100 in confluence with the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and near the 38.2%…

EURUSD

The Euro-Dollar had another correction month in January and is still inside a symmetrical triangle, having bounced from the monthly SMA100 and Fibonacci 50% retracement on previous swing high, and reaching the middle line of the Bollinger Bands which is nearing a confluence with the SMA34 (middle point between both lines would be 1.3750…

USDCAD

The Loonie had a second bullish week after breaking and coming back from previous weekly lows at around 0.9940. Friday candle penetrated the daily SMA34 and almost reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on previous swing low, which coincides with the upper trend line of the descending channel, a few pips above parity. On a medium-term…

USDJPY

The Dollar-Yen has been following the upper trend line of the weekly descending channel inscribed in a bigger falling wedge and ranging between 82.00 and 83.00 for the last three weeks. Monday price action went into a very tight consolidation between 82.00 and 82.25, and today is showing a bearish move with a break and retest of 81.80 level.…

EURCHF

A tweezer top on weekly charts marked a retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on daily time frame, after price had almost reached daily SMA100 and weekly middle line of Bollinger Bands. Monday’s price action was a bounce back to the upside from the middle line of daily bands and middle line of weekly descending…